Mishor Yamin, a ~100 km² plateau composed mainly of Miocene sands and located in south-east Israel, is characterized by a semi-arid climate with an average annual rainfall of ~80 mm. Continuous erosion measurements conducted in the area over recent years reveal that significant erosion occurs only in a minority of rainfall events, suggesting that hydrological drivers alone do not fully explain the occurrence of major erosion episodes. Therefore, an atmospheric–hydrologic study was initiated to explore additional drivers.
This study examines the synoptic and thermodynamic differences between non-erosive rainfall days and rainfall events associated with substantial erosion. We analyze near-surface and upper-level atmospheric fields, instability indicators, and moisture-transport parameters, comparing systematic composites of erosive and non-erosive rainfall events recorded over the past five years.
The results show that erosive events are associated with a distinct synoptic configuration characterized by deeper and more southerly surface and upper-level troughs relative to typical systems affecting the region. These systems are accompanied by enhanced atmospheric instability and more efficient moisture transport from the south, supporting stronger vertical motions and the development of short-lived, yet intense rainfall episodes that effectively trigger erosion across the plateau.
To assess the probable influence of recent climate change, we compare synoptic analogs of the most significant erosion events between a colder reference period (1980–2000) and the current warmer period (2005–2025), after filtering the effects of large-scale climate modes (ENSO, IOD, NAO). This analysis indicates that erosion events in the warmer period occur under higher temperatures and shifted synoptic structures, together with a southward displacement and intensification of rainfall events in southern Israel. These findings highlight the sensitivity of arid and semi-arid landscapes to climatic shifts and point to an increased likelihood of significant erosion under future warming scenarios.