On January 2022, Truaa, the national government-operated earthquake early warning (EEW) system commenced its operational mode. Among many technical issues in building and operating such a system, is the alerting strategy: when and where to alert.
Implementing an EEW system alerting strategy entails a trade-off between urgency and necessity. Large uncertainties at initial stages might lead to issuing urgent alerts for non-damaging earthquakes. Conversely, necessary yet delayed alerts with higher certainties can lead to preventable harm. In this work, we aim to balance these approaches and optimize alerting strategies.
As part of our study, and in an attempt to gain insight into the public’s perspective, we distributed two questionnaires in Israel: one following the earthquake swarm near Beit-Shean, Israel on January 2022, and one following the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquakes, widely felt throughout Israel. Analysis of the results of both surveys reveal that the public prefers urgent alerts, despite alert uncertainties.
Furthermore, in a new study, we distributed a similar questionnaire after the first ever EEW alert was disseminated by the system, on October 2024, eventually regarded as a false alert triggered by a large military explosion. Analysis of results of the 2024 questionnaire shows no significant change in preference compared to the 2022 and 2023 surveys and reveals that the public prefers urgent alerts even after receiving a false alert.
By considering social perspectives, we highlight the need to optimize alerting strategies and to consider reducing the alert magnitude threshold by incorporating social factors. This approach offers insights for making well-informed decisions to enhance the effectiveness of the Israeli EEW system.